Sunday, October 28, 2012

Why Has Romney Been Surging?

MILFORD, NH - JUNE 15:  Republican Presidentia...
MILFORD, NH - JUNE 15: Republican Presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks to the media about President Barack Obama's announcement today of a change in the immigration policy that will allow illegal immigrants brought into the country as children to remain in the United States and apply for work permits as he campaigns during an event at the Milford Ice Cream Social on June 15, 2012 in Milford, New Hampshire. Mr. Romney is starting a five day swing through battle ground states as he battles President Barack Obama for votes. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
Why has Romney been doing better than expected in an election that was characterized as an Obama cinch?


For the unemployed, under-employed, and those who are plain under water, Romney is offering them a change of course that gives them hope that the next four years might be better than the last four.

Romney is the hope-and-change Presidential candidate.

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Anonymous said...

If you think he's going to win, care to put some money on it? Let's make it official.

RkBall said...

Dude, where in this post did I say I thought he was going to win?

Let's make it official.

Thucydides said...

Perhaps the media is preparing for "accountability day", when the voters demonstrate that most of the polls have been nothing but nonsense and wish fulfillment.

Voters who are concerned about the economy, angry over high food and fuel prices or confounded by the unfolding story of the murder of Ambassador Stevens are going to vote in huge numbers for Governor Romney. Pols which oversample Democrats by +3 or more, which make assumptions of voter turnout based on 2008 rather than 2010 or use ridiculously small sample sizes will be shown to be i error, and anyone who runs polls like this close to election day will have their reputations damaged.

So slowly adjusting the polls by factoring out oversampling and unreasonable turnout models will allow the media to claim legitimacy again.

"... nothing intellectually compelling or challenging.. bald assertions coupled to superstition... woefully pathetic"